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« Reply #180 on: March 02, 2012, 10:27:00 am »

ECB says Greek bonds no longer eligible as collateral
28 February 2012, (AFP)
http://www.france24.com/en/20120228-ecb-says-greek-bonds-no-longer-eligible-collateral

The European Central Bank said Tuesday it would temporarily no longer accept Greek sovereign bonds as collateral for loans to banks after Greece was declared in "selective default" by a rating agency.

"The governing council of the European Central Bank has decided to temporarily suspend the eligibility of marketable debt instruments issued or fully guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic for use as collateral in eurosystem monetary policy operations," the ECB said in a statement.

"This decision takes into account the rating of the Hellenic Republic as a result of the launch of the private sector involvement offer," the bank explained.

On Monday, ratings firm Standard & Poor's declared Greece in "selective default" after banks agreed to write off more than half of their Greek debt holdings in a second EU bailout of the country.

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« Reply #181 on: March 02, 2012, 10:28:27 am »

ISDA Unanimous - No Payout On Greek CDS
1 March 2012, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-unanimous-no-payout-greek-cds

As expected by virtually everyone: NO PAYOUT ON GREECE $3.25 BILLION DEFAULT SWAPS, ISDA SAYS
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« Reply #182 on: March 02, 2012, 10:35:25 am »

How Much Is That Greek Doggy Worth In The PSI Window?
27 February 2012, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-much-greek-doggy-worth-psi-window

Excerpt:

With the Greek government bonds (GGBs) and CDS basis package trading at its highest in six months (over 96% of Par) and GGBs trading below 20% of Par (compared to considerably higher 'expected' PSI-based valuations),

it seems the market is much more convinced of an imminent credit trigger and no PSI deal than headlines are crowing about.

Combining the new 30Y bond, 2Y EFSF add-on, and GDP warrant, BARCAP arrives at a price of around 26.6% of Par for PSI-able bonds - considerably above the current depressed price of GGBs and together with S&P's negative outlook change to the EFSF this morning,

it would appear that market participants are not expecting a deal to get done by March 20th.

Perhaps that is why hope is so high this morning for a quadrillion Euro LTRO2 to see them through? That should help oil prices!

The Greek Bond-CDS package - that theoretically pays off par if a credit event is triggered - is trading at its highest in six months - and given the yields/spreads involved,

the March 20th maturity of the closest bond AND the fact that this date is also a CDS rollover date,

suggests market participants are expecting an 'event' before this (retro CACs?).

The closer the value of the basis package gets to 100, the higher probability and/or sooner the credit event is expected to be.

----

GGBs trade well below the implied PSI valuations levels - implying very little belief in the deal being done as it stands - even with accrueds being paid in full.

----

It would appear that GGBs remain very much the bull-dog in the European china-shop and while hope remains high for the PSI deal to be done, market prices do not reflect this hope
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« Reply #183 on: March 03, 2012, 09:37:57 am »

Moody's cuts Greece to lowest rating
2 March 2012, by Wallace Witkowski - San Francisco (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-cuts-greece-to-lowest-rating-2012-03-02

Moody's Investor Service downgraded Greece's bond ratings to a C from Ca because of massive losses to bondholders expected under a debt restructuring.

"Moody's decision not to assign an outlook to the rating is based on the very high likelihood of a default by the Greek government on its bonds and the fact that C is the lowest rating on Moody's rating scale," the ratings agency said in a statement.

Moody's expects an investor haircut in excess of 70% as a result of the restructuring.

On Monday, Standard & Poor's downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Greece to selective default.
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« Reply #184 on: March 04, 2012, 07:23:34 pm »

FRANKFURT/VIENNA (Reuters) - Greece's second bailout may prove insufficient and a topping up of the euro zone's permanent bailout fund cannot be ruled out, the Austrian Chancellor was quoted as saying in a newspaper on Sunday.
 
"I would not trust anyone who says that (the help) for Greece is enough," Werner Faymann said in an interview with Austrian paper Oesterreich. "For Greece it depends on whether they can stick to these measures over several elections."
 
He also did not rule out extending the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), saying it "may be necessary."
 
The euro zone will decide whether to increase its debt crisis firewall before the end of March, probably at an informal gathering in Copenhagen set for March 30/31.

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http://news.yahoo.com/greece-may-more-help-austrian-chancellor-162042505.html
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« Reply #185 on: March 05, 2012, 09:45:53 am »

http://news.yahoo.com/greece-bank-deposits-down-euro70-bln-since-2009-075051714.html

3/5/12

Greece: Bank deposits down euro70 bln since 2009

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Bank deposits in Greece have fallen by euro70 billion ($92.5 billion) since the start of the crisis in 2009, the finance minister said Monday, an indication of the massive loss of confidence in the economy as it repeatedly came close to bankruptcy.

Evangelos Venizelos said only euro16 billion of the funds withdrawn from Greek banks was sent abroad, mostly to the U.K. The rest is largely spent as families and businesses eat into their savings, or hoarded by households preparing for the worst case scenario — a debt default or Greece's exit from the euro.

"This money, if it existed in the banks, would allow for loans to be made to businesses, for the economy to move, for unemployment to be tackled," Venizelos said in an interview on Antenna Television.

He stressed the importance of restoring confidence in order to encourage the return of funds to the banks, insisting that a new bailout deal and a major bond swap designed to slash Greece's overall debt will strengthen the financial sector.

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http://news.yahoo.com/eurozone-deadline-looms-greek-debt-write-down-030251990.html

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« Reply #186 on: March 05, 2012, 08:12:00 pm »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9121151/Greek-default-looms-as-voluntary-debt-deal-looks-set-to-fail.html

Greek default looms as voluntary debt deal looks set to fail

3/3/12

European leaders are braced for the eurozone’s first ever sovereign default this week as Greece’s efforts to secure a €206bn (£172bn) “voluntary” bond swap looks increasingly unlikely.


Authorities in Athens are ready to enforce the controversial collective action clauses, or CACs, to impose the restructuring deal on all bondholders as the number of voluntary agreements look set to fall short of the required amount.
 
Credit rating agencies have warned they will declare Athens to be in default if the CACs are triggered which would be a dramatic culmination to a three-year rollercoaster ride for Athens, the eurozone and global markets.
 
While the markets have been ready for a Greek default for months, the move could leave Greece and its banks barred from funding from the European Central Bank (ECB). On Monday, Standard & Poor’s declared Greece to be in a state of “selective default” which led to the ECB announcing it would no longer accept Greek government bonds as security for new loans.
 
The rating agency said its decision had been prompted by the threat of the CACs and the actual use of them is likely to tip Greece into actual default. The agency said it regarded the process as a “distressed debt restructuring”.

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« Reply #187 on: March 05, 2012, 08:15:36 pm »

ECB Says Greece May Not Get Enough PSI Participation, Der Spiegel Reports

 By Brian Parkin - Mar 4, 2012 11:51 AM CT

Greece may fail to garner enough investors to participate in a voluntary writedown of its debt, Der Spiegel magazine reported, citing unnamed officials at the European Central Bank.

A second Greek bailout is partly tied to investors’ agreeing to the writedown by a March 8 deadline.
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« Reply #188 on: March 06, 2012, 08:59:02 am »

http://news.yahoo.com/greek-finance-minister-tells-bondholders-swap-offer-final-183107446.html;_ylt=ApJMl_CKArTfTaFSedkY_1_Nt.d_;_ylu=X3oDMTRvMmg1dTExBGNjb2RlA2dtcHRvcDEwMDBwb29sd2lraXVwcmVzdARtaXQDTmV3cyBmb3IgeW91BHBrZwNmYTAzNjEyOC03YWMzLTMxZjMtODQ1OC1hMjBlYjQxMWZmNGIEcG9zAzIEc2VjA25ld3NfZm9yX3lvdQR2ZXIDODI0NzA3MzAtNjZmMS0xMWUxLWJkM2QtY2ZjNmM2MGYxZmY0;_ylg=X3oDMTNoZDJlM2QxBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDYmM5NGRmYjItNzVkMi0zZjRkLWJiMDctYjZiYTVhYjEwZWEwBHBzdGNhdANwb2xpdGljc3xkZXN0aW5hdGlvbjIwMTIEcHQDc3RvcnlwYWdlBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

3/5/12

Greek finance minister tells bondholders swap offer is final

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos warned Athens' private creditors on Monday not to hold out but take the bond swap on which a second bailout of the debt-ridden country depends because it was the best deal they would get.

Venizelos told Reuters in an interview three days before the exchange offer expires, that the terms hammered out last month after months of tortuous negotiations were favorable and Greece would not hesitate to activate laws forcing losses on bond holders who did not willingly sign up.

"Whoever thinks that they will hold out and be paid in full, is mistaken," he said. "We are ready to activate CACs (collective action clause to enforce losses) if needed," he said.

The deal clinched by euro zone finance ministers in the early hours of February 21 involves investors taking a nominal 53.5 percent loss, which equates to a real 73-74 percent loss, on their Greek bonds in a deal aimed at rescuing Greece from a chaotic default by cutting its debt mountain by around 100 billion euros.

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« Reply #189 on: March 06, 2012, 09:00:04 am »

http://news.yahoo.com/danger-1-tillion-euro-fallout-greek-default-iif-081634912.html;_ylt=AgRbLntQtD5W4pUu8pLFgs3Nt.d_;_ylu=X3oDMTRvNmRmNHI3BGNjb2RlA2dtcHRvcDEwMDBwb29sd2lraXVwcmVzdARtaXQDTmV3cyBmb3IgeW91BHBrZwM4ZTgxZWQzMy0yMWQzLTNlNGMtYTEwMS1iOTFkOGRjOTE3YmMEcG9zAzEEc2VjA25ld3NfZm9yX3lvdQR2ZXIDYmQ1NmMxNDUtNjc4Yi0xMWUxLTk3MmItMWRhMjQ1ZTRmMGQ5;_ylg=X3oDMTNoZDJlM2QxBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDYmM5NGRmYjItNzVkMi0zZjRkLWJiMDctYjZiYTVhYjEwZWEwBHBzdGNhdANwb2xpdGljc3xkZXN0aW5hdGlvbjIwMTIEcHQDc3RvcnlwYWdlBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

3/6/12

Bondholder group sees 1 trillion euro Greek default risk

LONDON (Reuters) - A disorderly Greek default would cause more than a trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) of damage to the euro zone and could leave Italy and Spain dependent on outside help to stop contagion spreading, the main bondholders group has said.

Greek private creditors have until Thursday night to say whether they will participate in a bond swap that is part of a bailout deal to help it manage its finances and meet a debt repayment on March 20.

Investors will lose almost three-quarters of the value of their debt in the exchange. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Reuters on Monday it was the best deal they would get and those who did not sign up would still be forced to take losses.

Analysts said the Institute of International Finance document, marked "IIF Staff Note: Confidential," may have been designed to alarm investors into participating in the exchange.

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« Reply #190 on: March 06, 2012, 01:33:53 pm »

Fasten your seat belts...

http://money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=aca2d15f-ecba-4554-9111-004f44de7038

Stocks tumble in market's worst loss of 2012

The Dow flirts with a 200-point loss as worries build that Greece is headed to default and Europe appears to be in a recession. Gold falls below 1,700, and crude oil drops under $105. Retail gas prices slip after 27 straight gains.

Updated: 2 p.m. ET.

Stocks were suffering their worst losses of the year on new worries about Europe and continued fears that Chinese growth will be lower than expected.

The Dow Jones industrial Average ($INDU -1.69%) has been off more than 200 points for much of the day and potentially headed to its first loss of more than 100 points this year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX -1.70%) had fallen below 1,350, with some analysts seeing a decline to around 1,320 as a possibility. The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX -1.60%) fell to as low as 2,901 before recovering slightly. 

The immediate issue was whether Greece and private bondholders will meet a Thursday deadline to complete a debt swap. Greece wants the bond holders to swap old bonds for new ones and take a write-down of some 70% in the process. Plus, there were continuing worries about recession spreading across Europe; Ford Motor (F -3.13%) warned its European operations may lose $500 million to $600 million this year.

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« Reply #191 on: March 06, 2012, 06:00:21 pm »

Wall Street drop indication the world’s financial pyramid still has a cracked glass floor

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/wall-street-drop-indication-the-worlds-financial-pyramid-still-has-a-cracked-glass-floor/

March 6, 2012 – NEW YORK – Stocks closed sharply lower Tuesday, with the Dow posting its first triple-digit decline in 2012, fueled by fears over a Greek default and amid economic growth concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -203.66 points, or 1.57 percent, to close at 12,759.15, logging its biggest decline since November 23, 2011. The Dow’s recent streak without a triple-digit decline was the longest since 2006. The S&P 500 erased 20.97 points, or 1.54 percent, to end at 1,343.36. The Nasdaq dropped 40.16 points, or 1.36 percent, to finish at 2,910.32. All 10 S&P sectors closed firmly in the red, led by financials and industrials. The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, surged above 20 for the first time since mid-February. Meanwhile, open interest in the Vix index futures reached new all-time highs on Monday, hitting levels not seen since last June. Global woes have weighed on equities in recent trading sessions. On Monday, stocks ended lower after China cut its 2012 growth target to an 8-year low of 7.5 percent. The focus has since turned back to Greece as investors were jittery over the Greek debt swap deal. The bond swap plays an important role of a second bailout loan for the debt-ridden nation that aims to keep it from defaulting. –CNBC

Trillion Dollar black hole: Decision day for the Greek debt crisis is drawing near, and insiders are predicting that if things go awry it could cost the world economy $1.3 trillion. Holders of Greek bonds have to decide by this Thursday whether they will trade in their old Greek bonds for new bonds that are worth less. Bond holders have an interest in agreeing to the swap because if it doesn’t work, Greece is likely to default on its debt when it has scheduled payments on March 20. In a confidential memo that has just surfaced, the industry group representing bond holders has said that the consequences of such a default could be $1 trillion in losses. “When combined with the strong likelihood that a disorderly Greek default would lead to the hurried exit of Greece from the Euro Area, this financial shock to the [European Central Bank] could raise significant stability issues about the monetary union,” the International Institute of Finance’s memo said, according to a copy posted on a Greek news website. Even with the potential damage, it is not clear if all the bond holders will sign on, and Greece said it will only go ahead if it gets 75% participation. Many of the bonds are currently held by hedge funds who bought them up on the cheap and who are now disappointed with the level of the cuts that Greece is insisting they take. The IIF put out a statement Monday listing all the bond holders who are willing to take the deal. Bloomberg estimated that they only account for 20% of the total participants needed. Greece’s finance minister told Bloomberg Television this is the only chance bond holders will get. “This is the best offer because this is the only one, the only existing offer,” Evangelos Venizelos said. If they don’t take it, today’s stock market declines may look like small potatoes. –LA Times
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« Reply #192 on: March 08, 2012, 11:39:47 am »

http://news.yahoo.com/greece-closes-target-bond-swap-deal-170856203.html

3/8/12

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Greece's race to slice €107 billion ($140 billion) off its debt entered the home stretch Thursday, with a government official saying participation in a bond swap deal was already above 75 percent and markets appearing confident of success.

Investors have until 10 p.m. local time (2000 GMT) to sign up to the deal which aims to lower Greece's national debt by having private creditors swap their Greek bonds for new ones with a 53.5 percent lower face value, lower interest rates and longer maturity dates.

The swap is a critical part of the country's second international bailout. If too few investors agree and it fails, the crisis-hit country will likely default on its debt in less than two weeks when a big bond repayment is due, prompting renewed turmoil in financial markets and knocking confidence in the global economy.

A government official said Thursday evening that as of Wednesday night, the takeup on the offer had already topped 75 percent. He spoke on condition of anonymity because the deadline for private creditors to sign up to the deal was still hours away.

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« Reply #193 on: March 08, 2012, 11:45:12 am »

http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/08/markets/greece-debt-creditors/index.htm?section=money_news_international

Greece debt swap down to the wire
By CNNMoney staff@CNNMoneyMarketsMarch 8, 2012: 12:23 PM ET

The terms of the restructuring are not attractive for bondholders. They have been "invited" to voluntarily take part in a writedown and debt swap that could result in losses of up to 75%.
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« Reply #194 on: March 08, 2012, 02:16:30 pm »

http://news.yahoo.com/greece-optimistic-bond-swap-deadline-nears-090734308.html

3/8/12

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece closed a bond swap offer to private creditors on Thursday after clearing the minimum threshold of acceptance to push the deal through, moving closer to unlocking funds it needs to avoid a dangerous debt default.

Government officials said before the final deadline for declaring interest passed at 2000 GMT that more than 75 percent of eligible bonds had already been committed.

The biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history will see bond holders accept losses of some 74 percent on the value of their investments in a deal that will cut more than 100 billion euros from Greece's crippling public debt.

Preliminary results from the offer are expected to be announced officially at 0600 GMT on Friday before a conference call with euro zone finance ministers in the afternoon.

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« Reply #195 on: March 08, 2012, 05:17:21 pm »

Greek bond swap concluded successfully - Deal clears needed threshold, but some still fret over Europe’s debt
8 March 2012, by William L. Watts - Frankfurt (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/optimism-grows-over-greece-bond-swap-2012-03-08

Excerpt:

Greece completed a crucial debt swap with private creditors on Thursday, clearing the way for the country to substantially lower its debt burden and moving it closer to receiving a badly needed second official bailout, according to media reports.

Bondholders representing some 85% of Greece’s outstanding private-sector debt, well above the government’s minimum threshold, have signed up to take part in the swap, according to the reports.

The high rate of participation will allow Greece to force any holders of bonds regulated under Greek law to participate in the swap.

Bloomberg reported that €155 billion ($205 billion) of the €177 billion in bonds issued under Greek law were tendered.

Citing a banker briefed on the deal, it said €12 billion of non-Greek regulated bonds and €7 billion of state-owned company bonds were also tendered.

The success of the deal will cut Greece’s debt burden by more than €100 billion and remove one of the last hurdles keeping its official creditors from moving forward with an official bailout worth €130 billion.

The developments helped lift risk appetite in financial markets, boosting European equities and U.S. stock indexes, strategists said.

They warned, though, that the positive sentiment may prove fragile. Read more in Europe Markets.

The deal ... is just one more hurdle in a crisis that is still very likely to bring further bad news in the coming months,” said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London.
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« Reply #196 on: March 08, 2012, 06:16:37 pm »

Ultimately, whether they have "deals" in place or not, it's all a lose-lose when all is said and done. There are WAY too many costs for the deals that just went through, and they all know that Greece won't have the resources to pay it back.

Like Kilika said earlier in this thread, why can't the rest of Europe et al(and throw in the Vatican and the wealthy people of this world like Warren Buffet) CHIP IN and help pay for the debt Huh Yeah, sometimes we have to check our brains at the door when thinking things through.
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« Reply #197 on: March 09, 2012, 11:06:13 am »

http://news.yahoo.com/euro-zone-finance-ministers-assess-greek-deal-shortly-113554517.html

BERLIN (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers will discuss the results of Greece's debt swap deal at a teleconference at around 1130 GMT on Friday and will then decide at a meeting next week on unlocking a second bailout for the country, a German government spokesman said.

Greece won strong acceptance from its private creditors on Thursday for the bond swap deal, which is a crucial requirement for the 130-billion-euro bailout.

"The high take-up rate among private creditors opens the way to the largest debt restructuring of a country in history," German government spokesman Steffen Seibert told a news briefing, adding that Chancellor Angelea Merkel saw the result as "encouraging".

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« Reply #198 on: March 09, 2012, 01:58:00 pm »

ECB to again accept Greek bonds as collateral
8 March 2012, by William L. Watts - Frankfurt (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-to-again-accept-greek-bonds-as-collateral-2012-03-08

The European Central Bank on Thursday said it would again accept Greek government bonds as collateral in its funding operations.

The bonds had been ruled temporarily ineligible for use as collateral last month after Standard & Poor's declared Greece to be in selective default.

The ECB said at the time that eligibility would be restored once a previously-agreed collateral enhancement program for Greece was formally activated.

In a news release Thursday, the ECB said its Governing Council acknowledged the activation of the buyback program and

"has decided that the aforementioned debt instruments will be again accepted as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations, without applying the minimum credit rating threshold for collateral eligibility until further notice."
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« Reply #199 on: March 09, 2012, 04:08:39 pm »

The Bad News Begins: Greek Q4 GDP Slide Revised Downward From -7.0% To -7.5%
9 March 2012, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bad-news-begins-greek-q4-gdp-slide-revised-downward-70-75

Not even 6 hours after the PSI exchange offer details, and already the true Greek problem rears its head.

Because it is not the crushing debt coupon that is the primary threat to Greece: cutting the cash coupon from infinity to 2.6% is welcome, but utterly meaningless if the debt load is still intolerable (as a reminder, just the Troika DIP is about 130% of Greek GDP, meaning all junior debt is worthless as confirmed by the trading price of the New Greek debt in the 15 cents on the euro region).

No - the true threat to the Greek economy is that nobody wants to work anymore.

Sure enough, the previously reported -7.0% contraction in Q4 GDP has just been revised to -7.5%.

From Reuters: "GDP contracted by 7.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2011, the country's statistics office said on Friday based on seasonally unadjusted provisional estimates.

The contraction, which followed a 5.0% GDP decline in the previous quarter, was deeper than a previous Feb. flash estimate of -7.0%."

And one can be absolutely certain that this number will be revised far further lower when all is said and done.

Also, with recently released Greek PSI data coming at an all time low, we wish Greece the best of luck in achieving that -1.0% GDP growth in 2013 as per the IMF's downside case.

Finally, this explains why the NEW Greek debt is trading with an implied redefault probability of 98%.

Here is how Greek GDP looks by quarter in 2011: Q1: -8.0%; Q2: -7.3%; Q3: -5.0%; and Q4: -7.5%
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« Reply #200 on: March 09, 2012, 04:11:39 pm »

Fitch Downgrades Greece From C To Restricted Default - Full Text
9 March 2012, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fitch-downgrades-greece-c-restricted-default-full-text
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« Reply #201 on: March 09, 2012, 04:21:42 pm »

Greece Restructuring Plan Triggers $3 Billion in Default Swaps, ISDA Says
9 March 2012, by Abigail Moses (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greek-debt-deal-might-trigger-3-billion-of-default-swaps-under-isda-rules.html

Greece’s use of collective action clauses forcing investors to take losses under the nation’s debt restructuring will trigger payouts on $3 billion of default insurance, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said.

<skip>

Restructuring

The determinations committee which decides whether a credit event has occurred consists of representatives from 15 dealers and investors. The group, which includes Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Pacific Investment Management Co. and Morgan Stanley, rules after a request is made by a market participant.

In a restructuring credit event investors have the right to choose whether to settle their default swap contracts.

Auctions will set a recovery value on the bonds and swaps sellers will pay buyers the difference between that and the face value of the debt.
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« Reply #202 on: March 09, 2012, 04:26:21 pm »

Papademos Speaks - Point And Counterpoint
9 March 2012, by Tyler Durden (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/papademos-speaks-point-and-counterpoint

The fearless ECB-plant leading the Greek people on an unelected basis has spoken. Here are the key points and counterpoints:

1. PAPADEMOS SAYS DEPOSITS NOW CAN RETURN TO GREECE

-> They can... but they won't because as the Greek gold is confiscated, so will the Greek private deposits.

In the meantime: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-bank-deposit-outflows-soar-january-third-largest-ever
 

2. PAPADEMOS SAYS UP TO GREEKS TO DETERMINE THE COURSE OF COUNTRY

-> Yes indeed http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-not-happy-angela-merkel

That. And all those successful referendums...

 

3. PAPADEMOS SAYS GREEKS MUST NOT WASTE THIS GREAT OPPORTUNITY

-> Great opportunity indeed: Total Greek debt pre-restructuring: $1.20 Trillion; Total Greek debt post-restructuring: $1.233 Trillion.

Congratulations Greece - you now have more debt than ever in history following this historic "restructuring",

but at least your new foreign overloards have a first lien on everything and then some as the Troika's DIP alone is well 130% of GDP.

Including your gold. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cost-combined-greek-bailout-just-rose-%E2%82%AC320-billion-secured-debt-or-136-greek-gdp
« Last Edit: March 09, 2012, 04:29:04 pm by BornAgain2 » Report Spam   Logged
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« Reply #203 on: March 09, 2012, 05:56:58 pm »

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46683364

Published: Friday, 9 Mar 2012 | 3:18 PM ET

A group representing dealers in credit default swaps decided Friday that Greek's bond swap constitutes a "credit event" that entitles holders of Greek credit default swaps to compensation.

The "yes" vote by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association triggers roughly $3.2 billion in CDS, which are insurance policies that pay out if a bond issuer defaults. That amount is actually much smaller than many had feared.

The decision was widely expected, and stocks were slightly down after the announcement.

Greece pushed through a bond swap deal on Friday, forcing  bond holders to take a significant "haircut" on the return of their money. The swap was approved by about 84 percent of the holders, and Greece is moving to activate a rule forcing the rest of the bondholders to go along with the deal.

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« Reply #204 on: March 09, 2012, 09:20:58 pm »

Buying time: Greek bailout protects Europe from financial risk but may not save Greece

3/9/12

WASHINGTON - Greece got the rescue. But it's the rest of Europe that's breathing easier.

A $172 billion (€130 billion) bailout isn't likely to keep Greece from eventually defaulting on its debts and abandoning the euro, many economists say.

The sad truth about the bailout is that it mostly just buys time. The breather allows European governments and banks to strengthen their financial defences, leaving them less vulnerable if Greece cracks up a few months or even a few years from now.

The bailout — plus an agreement endorsed Thursday by most private lenders to reduce Greece's debts — "does more to protect Europe from Greece than for Greece itself," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.


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http://news.yahoo.com/buying-time-greek-bailout-protects-europe-financial-risk-144011114.html;_ylt=AiwSKtazGyqTuzMTf_nX48kSscB_;_ylu=X3oDMTRvaTVyczA2BGNjb2RlA2dtcHRvcDEwMDBwb29sd2lraXVwcmVzdARtaXQDTmV3cyBmb3IgeW91BHBrZwM3YzU0OTQ3NC0yMDIwLTMyODAtODZlNC01MDZiMzA4YTY4NDUEcG9zAzEEc2VjA25ld3NfZm9yX3lvdQR2ZXIDMDhjZDI5NDAtNjlmNi0xMWUxLWJmZjYtZGQ1NmMxMTg3MGQz;_ylg=X3oDMTJwaThpYWptBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDZTQ0N2VjYTktNWJiMS0zMGVhLWJhMWUtODBhZjMwMjE0NTAyBHBzdGNhdAMEcHQDc3RvcnlwYWdlBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
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« Reply #205 on: March 09, 2012, 10:40:28 pm »

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/greece-debt-crisis-triggers-massive-credit-default-contract-swap-worth-billions/

Greece debt crisis triggers massive credit default contract swap worth billions

March 10, 2012 – GREECE - It’s for real this time. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association determined today that Greece’s bond swap has triggered a credit event. That will lead to payouts of credit default swaps—essentially, insurance contracts on holdings of Greek bonds under Greek law—that investors purchased to hedge against the risk of holding Greek sovereign debt. While expected, this is the icing on the cake of the first developed market default in 60 years. An auction related to outstanding CDS transactions will be held on March 19. The committee asks that any investor wanting to participate in the auction notify ISDA immediately. Provocation of a credit event has been a contentious topic in Europe during the last few months. On one hand, sovereign CDS contracts are the only securities that allow investors to hedge and speculate directly against governments. Because the market is so opaque and because many financial institutions are on both sides of this trade, credit default swaps have compounded concerns about the contagion that would occur as a result of a financial shock. While the market for Greek CDS is relatively small, some traders and officials had been fearful that a credit event was still not fully priced in, and could have some negative consequences. On the other hand, attempts to subvert existing CDS contracts would have also compromised investors’ faith in EU leaders’ willingness to stick to market rules. Analysts had feared that this distrust for sovereign credit default swaps would have spread into the corporate CDS market, destroying a major industry with far-reaching consequences. It had become apparent in recent weeks that Greece was not going to significantly reduce its debt burden without forcing investors to participate in a structured default. Earlier proposals to keep the deal “voluntary” would likely not have received sufficient participation from investors to significantly reduce Greece’s outstanding public debt.–Business Insider
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« Reply #206 on: March 10, 2012, 10:08:01 am »

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece-eyes-1-billion-euro-stimulus-eib-pm-114341104.html

3/10/12

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece hopes to get 1 billion euros ($1.31 billion) in financing from the European Investment Bank (EIB) this year as a stimulus for its ailing economy, a senior official said on Saturday.

Greece and the European Commission are pushing the EIB, the European Union's long-term investment arm, to disburse the funds, said Gikas Hardouvelis, top economic adviser to Prime Minister Lucas Papademos.

"I believe in the end it will happen," Hardouvelis told Greece's Mega television, adding the EIB might channel the money into the Greek economy through local banks.

After the success of a debt cut plan on Friday, which opens the way for a 130-billion euro international bailout, Athens is looking for ways to kick-start its stricken economy, now in its fifth year of recession.

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« Reply #207 on: March 11, 2012, 02:44:12 pm »

http://pragcap.com/the-world-is-not-immune-to-greeces-problems

3/9/12

THE WORLD IS NOT IMMUNE TO GREECE’S PROBLEMS
As we write, it appears that more than 75% of the holders of privately held Greek bonds have accepted the deal to exchange old bonds for new, and that the eventual acceptance rate could go over 90%.  For the U.S. stock market, this may take the Greek situation off the table temporarily, allowing investors to turn their attention, instead, to the rapidly declining EU economy, continuing sub-par growth in the U.S. and the gathering global slowdown.
 
The Greek government will announce the final tally at 1:00 AM Eastern Standard Time Friday.  At that time it probably will activate the clause that enables them to force all holdouts to accept the deal.  Under the terms of the agreement holders will accept a cut of 53.5% in face value of the old bonds as well as a sharply lower interest rate.  The goal is to reduce Greek debt from the current 165% of GDP to 120% by 2020.
 
The action does not mean that we’ve seen an end to the turmoil. The Greek economy has been in recession for five years and the current unemployment rate is over 20%.  The required severe austerity measures make it almost certain that the Greek economy will continue to contract and that the budget deficit could get even worse, threatening the nation’s ability to meet payments even on the reduced amount of debt.  Already, the   new bonds to be issued are selling at huge discounts to face value on the so-called gray market, meaning that the chances of another default are high.  We also note that elections are coming up soon that could result in new leadership inclined to pander to an upset public facing higher unemployment, lower wages and cuts in pensions
 
Moreover, the deal still leaves the EU economy in bad shape. The ECB said that the EU economy is likely to contract this year, marking the third consecutive quarter that they have revised down their growth rate.  German manufacturing orders in January fell for the fifth time in seven months while Spanish industrial production has been in a steep decline.  Consumption and exports have generally been falling throughout Europe.  The implementation of austerity is likely to make things even worse.

The bulls believe that the European problems are not a threat to the U.S. or global economies.  They point out that the decline of Japan in the 1990s did not prevent the rest of the world from prospering.  Unfortunately, however, this is no longer the 1990s, when the emergence of the desk-top computer and the internet triggered a world-wide boom.  Now, U.S. economic growth is sluggish while China, Brazil, India, Russia and South Africa are all slowing down at the same time.  China has officially reduced its 2012 growth target, and India’s fourth quarter growth rate was its lowest in two years.  Brazil’s economy grew at 2.7% in 2011, half the rate originally forecast.  China’s exports to Europe are slowing as are China’s own imports of commodities.  China is the largest trade partner of Brazil and most of the other nations primarily dependent on commodities exports.
 
In our view, the U.S. will not remain an oasis of tranquility in a world that is either slowing down or already in recessionThe stock market is already overbought and overvalued at a time when earnings estimates are being revised down.  The odds of a significant downturn remain high.
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« Reply #208 on: March 11, 2012, 07:53:00 pm »

Europe's Scariest Chart Just Got Scarier
10 March 2012, by Tyler Durden (Zero Edge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-scariest-chart-just-got-scarier



Greek youth unemployment rose to 51.1%, twice as high as three years ago.

Greek youth unemployment is officially the second one in Europe after Spain to surpass 50%.

The number of people unemployed in the 11 million person country is now 41% greater than its was a year ago.
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« Reply #209 on: March 11, 2012, 08:05:57 pm »

The Greek €107 Billion Contingent Liability Gorilla Exposed
10 March 2012, by Mark Grant (Zero Hedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-%E2%82%AC107-billion-contingent-liability-gorilla-exposed

Excerpt:

With the addition of the new IMF/EU loans of $172 billion and the revelation of the guaranteed debt at $107 billion Greece now has $279 billion of new and hidden debts.

All of the meandering, all of the charades, all of the red nail polish applied will, in the end I forecast, not be able to hide the reality that the barking dog is a greasy Pig.

A Dose of Reality:

- If Greece borrows money from the IMF/EU which means that they have more debt now than they did before they defaulted then they are worse off and not better off as they have a larger debt.

- If Greece has an additional $107 billion in debt that has not been accounted for because it is not in the name of the Hellenic Republic but is guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic then how are they going to pay off this debt?

- If the goal of this entire exercise was to reduce Greece’s debt to GDP ratio to 120% then how will a larger debt accomplish this as it is fiscally impossible.

- If the “real REAL goal” was to pay off the European banks so they wouldn’t default then Europe has accomplished this goal but at a terrible cost to Greece and to the Greek people.
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