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Global warming ended 15 years ago; 'mini-ice age' next...

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March 27, 2024, 12:55:24 pm Mark says: Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked  When Hamas spokesman Abu Ubaida began a speech marking the 100th day of the war in Gaza, one confounding yet eye-opening proclamation escaped the headlines. Listing the motives for the Palestinian militant group's Oct. 7 massacre in Israel, he accused Jews of "bringing red cows" to the Holy Land.
December 31, 2022, 10:08:58 am NilsFor1611 says: blessings
August 08, 2018, 02:38:10 am suzytr says: Hello, any good churches in the Sacto, CA area, also looking in Reno NV, thanks in advance and God Bless you Smiley
January 29, 2018, 01:21:57 am Christian40 says: It will be interesting to see what happens this year Israel being 70 years as a modern nation may 14 2018
October 17, 2017, 01:25:20 am Christian40 says: It is good to type Mark is here again!  Smiley
October 16, 2017, 03:28:18 am Christian40 says: anyone else thinking that time is accelerating now? it seems im doing days in shorter time now is time being affected in some way?
September 24, 2017, 10:45:16 pm Psalm 51:17 says: The specific rule pertaining to the national anthem is found on pages A62-63 of the league rulebook. It states: “The National Anthem must be played prior to every NFL game, and all players must be on the sideline for the National Anthem. “During the National Anthem, players on the field and bench area should stand at attention, face the flag, hold helmets in their left hand, and refrain from talking. The home team should ensure that the American flag is in good condition. It should be pointed out to players and coaches that we continue to be judged by the public in this area of respect for the flag and our country. Failure to be on the field by the start of the National Anthem may result in discipline, such as fines, suspensions, and/or the forfeiture of draft choice(s) for violations of the above, including first offenses.”
September 20, 2017, 04:32:32 am Christian40 says: "The most popular Hepatitis B vaccine is nothing short of a witch’s brew including aluminum, formaldehyde, yeast, amino acids, and soy. Aluminum is a known neurotoxin that destroys cellular metabolism and function. Hundreds of studies link to the ravaging effects of aluminum. The other proteins and formaldehyde serve to activate the immune system and open up the blood-brain barrier. This is NOT a good thing."
http://www.naturalnews.com/2017-08-11-new-fda-approved-hepatitis-b-vaccine-found-to-increase-heart-attack-risk-by-700.html
September 19, 2017, 03:59:21 am Christian40 says: bbc international did a video about there street preaching they are good witnesses
September 14, 2017, 08:06:04 am Psalm 51:17 says: bro Mark Hunter on YT has some good, edifying stuff too.
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Author Topic: Global warming ended 15 years ago; 'mini-ice age' next...  (Read 15769 times)
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« on: January 29, 2012, 10:05:00 am »

Global warming ended 15 years ago; 'mini-ice age' next...

Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)

    Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years



The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html#ixzz1krcYepjM
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2012, 03:58:29 pm »

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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2012, 06:26:18 am »

Europe Snow Freezes Global Warming Claims

 Shocked wooops

Bosnian authorities have started using helicopters to evacuate the sick and deliver food to thousands of people cut off by the heaviest snowfall the nation has ever experienced.

Unusually heavy snow and below freezing temperatures have shut down much of Europe.

"This is unbelievable. I can't remember snow like this in past 30 years," Sarajevo resident Mirsada Mitrovic said.

More than 100 remote villages were isolated Monday by snow nearly 7 feet high in the mountains. More than 3 feet of snow has fallen in Sarajevo.

While the "mini Ice Age" barreled across Europe, a scientific debate also stirred as a result.

In London, The Independent reported that the extreme weather has nothing to do with what some call global cooling.

Instead the paper said it's actually about global warming, a popular claim throughout Europe.

The European Union considers global warming to be a scientific fact. So when there is a heat wave, media reports of "climate change" usually follow.

But now that Europe is in the freezer, many climate experts have gone silent.

Anne-Elisabeth Moutet is a Paris-based columnist for the London Telegraph.

"Climate change is an article of faith and an article of law (in the European Union)," she explained.

"You have this lemming effect where all the scientists are sort of blindly following climate change because so many have invested interest in it," Moutet added.

In Ukraine, temperatures have fallen to 33 below zero. At least 135 people have died.

And in Rome, it was a rare sight as Pope Benedict appeared above a St. Peter's Square still covered with snow from the day before. Rome hasn't had this much snow in 27 years.

Forecasters expect the bitter cold to continue through this week.

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2012/February/Europe-Gripped-by-Deadly-Deep-Freeze/
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2012, 03:34:16 pm »

It might get chilly for a spell, but the heat is coming! And it's far worse than "global warming".
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2012, 02:45:00 pm »

Drudge Headlines all in order.  Cheesy

POLAR ICE CAPS MELTING LESS THAN THOUGHT...
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/02/08/earths-polar-ice-melting-less-than-thought

STUDY: Himalayas, nearby peaks lost no ice in past 10 years...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/08/glaciers-mountains?intcmp=122

Scientists 'stunned'...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/08/glaciers-mountains?intcmp=122

Fed workers take leave -- with inch of snow expected!
http://wtop.com/?nid=41&sid=2738814
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« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2013, 08:08:06 am »

'No global warming for 16 years'
Christopher Monckton explains truth of scandal over climate change


The attendees at the recent global “climate” conference in Doha, Qatar, most of them highly influential and powerful in their home countries, were treated to a special address recently.

“There has been no global warming for 16 years (actually 18 or 19 years, on closer examination),” the speaker said. “Even if warming were to occur at the predicted rate this century, it would be many times cheaper to adapt … than to attempt, futilely, to mitigate it today. An independent scientific enquiry would be a good idea, to make sure that the conferences on the climate were still heading in the right direction.”


Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2013/01/no-global-warming-for-16-years/#zhmTLeyUTB7i7qyS.99
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« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2013, 08:31:27 am »

Why does Monckton call himself 'Lord'?
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« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2013, 09:52:41 am »

Why does Monckton call himself 'Lord'?

Dont know, Why?
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« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2013, 09:58:16 am »

Dont know, Why?

Well, it's a blasphemous title either way.

Mat_23:9  And call no man your father upon the earth: for one is your Father, which is in heaven.

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« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2013, 10:19:56 am »

oh... I thought were going to tell a joke  Cheesy
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« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2013, 10:21:39 am »

oh... I thought were going to tell a joke  Cheesy

I don't know if Monckton was knighted or anything, but that's his title for some reason.
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« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2013, 05:26:29 pm »

To be addressed in Britain as a lord, I think one must have been knighted, or bought the title somehow, from the British crown.

In the world, titles is what they do. I don't expect them to abide by scripture.
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2013, 10:36:18 am »

Twenty-year hiatus in rising temperatures has climate scientists puzzled

DEBATE about the reality of a two-decade pause in global warming and what it means has made its way from the sceptical fringe to the mainstream.

In a lengthy article this week, The Economist magazine said if climate scientists were credit-rating agencies, then climate sensitivity - the way climate reacts to changes in carbon-dioxide levels - would be on negative watch but not yet downgraded.

Another paper published by leading climate scientist James Hansen, the head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, says the lower than expected temperature rise between 2000 and the present could be explained by increased emissions from burning coal.

For Hansen the pause is a fact, but it's good news that probably won't last.

International Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri recently told The Weekend Australian the hiatus would have to last 30 to 40 years "at least" to break the long-term warming trend.

 But the fact that global surface temperatures have not followed the expected global warming pattern is now widely accepted.

Research by Ed Hawkins of University of Reading shows surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range projections derived from 20 climate models and if they remain flat, they will fall outside the models' range within a few years.

"The global temperature standstill shows that climate models are diverging from observations," says David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

"If we have not passed it already, we are on the threshold of global observations becoming incompatible with the consensus theory of climate change," he says.

Whitehouse argues that whatever has happened to make temperatures remain constant requires an explanation because the pause in temperature rise has occurred despite a sharp increase in global carbon emissions.

The Economist says the world has added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010, about one-quarter of all the carbon dioxide put there by humans since 1750. This mismatch between rising greenhouse gas emissions and not-rising temperatures is among the biggest puzzles in climate science just now, The Economist article says.

"But it does not mean global warming is a delusion."

The fact is temperatures between 2000 and 2010 are still almost 1C above their level in the first decade of the 20th century.

"The mismatch might mean that for some unexplained reason there has been a temporary lag between more carbon dioxide and higher temperatures in 2000-2010.

"Or it might mean that the 1990s, when temperatures were rising fast, was the anomalous period."

The magazine explores a range of possible explanations including higher emissions of sulphur dioxide, the little understood impact of clouds and the circulation of heat into the deep ocean.

But it also points to an increasing body of research that suggests it may be that climate is responding to higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide in ways that had not been properly understood before.

"This possibility, if true, could have profound significance both for climate science and for environmental and social policy," the article says.

There are now a number of studies that predict future temperature rises as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions at well below the IPCC best estimate of about 3C over the century.

The upcoming IPCC report is expected to lift the maximum possible temperature increase to 6C.

The Research Council of Norway says in a non-peer-reviewed paper that the best estimate concludes there is a 90 per cent probability that doubling CO2 emissions will increase temperatures by only 1.2C to 2.9C, the most likely figure being 1.9C.

Another study based on the way the climate behaved about 20,000 years ago has given a best guess of 2.3C.

Other forecasts, accepted for publication, have reanalysed work cited by the IPCC but taken account of more recent temperature data and given a figure of between 1C and 3C.

The Economist says understanding which estimate is true is vital to getting the best response.

"If as conventional wisdom has it, global temperatures could rise by 3C or more in response to a doubling of emissions, then the correct response would be the one to which most of the world pays lip service; rein in the warming and the greenhouse gases causing it," the article says.

"If, however, temperatures are likely to rise by only 2 degrees Celsius in response to a doubling of carbon emissions (and if the likelihood of a 6 degrees Celsius is trivial) the calculation might change," it says.

"Perhaps the world should seek to adjust to (rather than stop) the greenhouse-gas splurge.

"There is no point buying earthquake insurance if you don't live in an earthquake zone."

According to The Economist, "given the hiatus in warming and all the new evidence, a small reduction in estimates of climate sensitivity would seem to be justified." On face value, Hansen agrees the slowdown in global temperature rises can be seen as "good news".

But he is not ready to recalculate the Faustian bargain that weighs the future cost to humanity of continued carbon dioxide emissions.

Hansen argues that the impact of human carbon dioxide emissions has been masked by the sharp increase in coal use, primarily in China and India.

Increased particulate and nitrogen pollution has worked in the opposite direction of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Another paper published in Geophysical Research Letters on research from the University of Colorado Boulder found small volcanoes, not more coal power stations in China, were responsible for the slowdown in global warming.

But this did not mean that climate change was not a problem.

"Emissions from volcanic gases go up and down, helping to cool or heat the planet, while greenhouse gases from human activity just continue to go up," author Ryan Neely says.

Hansen's bottom line is that increased short-term masking of greenhouse gas warming by fossil fuel particulate and nitrogen pollution represents a "doubling down" of the Faustian bargain, an increase in the stakes.

"The more we allow the Faustian debt to build, the more unmanageable the eventual consequences will be," he says.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/twenty-year-hiatus-in-rising-temperatures-has-climate-scientists-puzzled/story-e6frg6z6-1226609140980
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2013, 10:44:21 am »

By the time they "discover" a "rising" in temperatures, it's gonna be too late...

Rev 16:8  And the fourth angel poured out his vial upon the sun; and power was given unto him to scorch men with fire.
Rev 16:9  And men were scorched with great heat, and blasphemed the name of God, which hath power over these plagues: and they repented not to give him glory.

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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2013, 03:35:28 pm »

"But the day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night; in the which the heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat, the earth also and the works that are therein shall be burned up." 2 Peter 3:10 (KJB)
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« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2013, 08:26:45 am »

Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown

 Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Often focused on century-long trends, most climate models failed to predict that the temperature rise would slow, starting around 2000. Scientists are now intent on figuring out the causes and determining whether the respite will be brief or a more lasting phenomenon.

Getting this right is essential for the short and long-term planning of governments and businesses ranging from energy to construction, from agriculture to insurance. Many scientists say they expect a revival of warming in coming years.

Theories for the pause include that deep oceans have taken up more heat with the result that the surface is cooler than expected, that industrial pollution in Asia or clouds are blocking the sun, or that greenhouse gases trap less heat than previously believed.

The change may be a result of an observed decline in heat-trapping water vapor in the high atmosphere, for unknown reasons. It could be a combination of factors or some as yet unknown natural variations, scientists say.

Weak economic growth and the pause in warming is undermining governments' willingness to make a rapid billion-dollar shift from fossil fuels. Almost 200 governments have agreed to work out a plan by the end of 2015 to combat global warming.

"The climate system is not quite so simple as people thought," said Bjorn Lomborg, a Danish statistician and author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist" who estimates that moderate warming will be beneficial for crop growth and human health.

Some experts say their trust in climate science has declined because of the many uncertainties. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had to correct a 2007 report that exaggerated the pace of melt of the Himalayan glaciers and wrongly said they could all vanish by 2035.

"My own confidence in the data has gone down in the past five years," said Richard Tol, an expert in climate change and professor of economics at the University of Sussex in England.

Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius first showed in the 1890s how man-made carbon dioxide, from coal for instance, traps heat in the atmosphere. Many of the exact effects are still unknown.

Greenhouse gas emissions have hit repeated record highs with annual growth of about 3 percent in most of the decade to 2010, partly powered by rises in China and India. World emissions were 75 percent higher in 2010 than in 1970, UN data show.

UN PANEL SEEKS EXPLANATION

A rapid rise in global temperatures in the 1980s and 1990s - when clean air laws in developed nations cut pollution and made sunshine stronger at the earth's surface - made for a compelling argument that human emissions were to blame.

The IPCC will seek to explain the current pause in a report to be released in three parts from late 2013 as the main scientific roadmap for governments in shifting from fossil fuels towards renewable energies such as solar or wind power, the panel's chairman Rajendra Pachauri said.

According to Pachauri, temperature records since 1850 "show there are fluctuations. They are 10, 15 years in duration. But the trend is unmistakable."

The IPCC has consistently said that fluctuations in the weather, perhaps caused by variations in sunspots or a La Nina cooling of the Pacific, can mask any warming trend and the panel has never predicted a year-by-year rise in temperatures.

Experts say short-term climate forecasts are vital to help governments, insurers and energy companies to plan.

Governments will find little point in reinforcing road bridges over rivers, for instance, if a prediction of more floods by 2100 doesn't apply to the 2020s.

A section of a draft IPCC report, looking at short-term trends, says temperatures are likely to be 0.4 to 1.0 degree Celsius (0.7-1.8F) warmer from 2016-35 than in the two decades to 2005. Rain and snow may increase in areas that already have high precipitation and decline in areas with scarcity, it says.

EXCEPTIONS AND CHALLENGES

Pachauri said climate change can have counter-intuitive effects, like more snowfall in winter that some people find hard to accept as side-effects of a warming trend. An IPCC report last year said warmer air can absorb more moisture, leading to heavier snowfall in some areas.

A study by Dutch experts this month sought to explain why there is now more sea ice in winter. It concluded melted ice from Antarctica was refreezing on the ocean surface - this fresh water freezes more easily than dense salt water.

Some experts challenged the findings.

"The hypothesis is plausible I just don't believe the study proves it to be true," said Paul Holland, an ice expert at the British Antarctic Survey.

Concern about climate change is rising in some nations, however, opinion polls show. Extreme events, such as Superstorm Sandy that hit the U.S. east coast last year, may be the cause. A record heatwave in Australia this summer forced weather forecasters to add a new dark magenta color to the map for temperatures up to 54 degrees Celsius (129F).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/us-climate-slowdown-idUSBRE93F0AJ20130416
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« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2013, 08:03:11 pm »

Antarctic ice sheet melt 'not that unusual', latest ice core shows
   
Warm slushy spells like the 1990s have happened before


The latest ice-core analysis from the Antarctic shows that nothing unusual in terms of melting is occurring.

In research published yesterday, a large team of scientists used a deep ice core from the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide to produce records going back some 2,000 years. Their analysis shown that recent melting in that area, which has caused a good deal of hysteria* in climate alarmist circles, is in fact normal.

“If we could look back at this region of Antarctica in the 1940s and 1830s, we would find that the regional climate would look a lot like it does today, and I think we also would find the glaciers retreating much as they are today,” comments Eric Steig, a senior earth-sciences boffin at the University of Washington and the lead author on the new research.

Ice loss in recent times from the Western Antarctic - considered to be one of the main places to worry about, if you worry about sea-level rises - may just "not be all that unusual", according to Steig.

The problem, as with many climate change issues, is that conditions in the Western Antarctic vary so much over short time scales that it's hard to work out if any long-term change is actually happening.

“The magnitude of unforced natural variability is very big in this area,” Steig comments.

Another major ice study recently came to similar conclusions regarding the likewise much-discussed Antarctic Peninsula: that recent melting there is not unprecedented, and indeed that various large bits of ice in that area - which today are still intact - probably broke off or melted at times in the pre-industrial past.

Stieg and his colleagues' paper is published in Nature Geoscience. ®

Bootnote
* For instance the hippies at Greenpeace (it is compulsory to be a hippie at Greenpeace) have this to say:

"... melting of ... the Western Antarctic ice sheet could ultimately raise sea levels by anything up to 13 metres or so (43 foot) if we do not drastically curb our greenhouse gas emissions, even the small fraction of this predicted by 2100 would be an economic and humanitarian disaster ...

"... London, Bangkok and New York, Shanghai and Mumbai will be among a number of cities which will eventually end up below sea level ..."

Actually though, that small fraction by 2100 is really tiny even under the standard alarmist case - which is itself looking very unlikely.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/04/15/western_antarctic_melting_nothing_unusual/
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2013, 10:49:05 am »

Climate change conclusion goes against scientific method

The last few years have seen much controversy over the question of whether the Earth’s climate is getting warmer and, if so, whether man is causing it. The issue has never been stated as a scientific question. The arguments for such man-made global warming have invariably been political in nature.

When you hear statements such as “the debate is over’ or “the science is settled” or “a consensus of scientists agrees,” you can be assured that the speaker knows virtually nothing about science, what the scientific method is or how science is conducted. This I attribute to our faulty educational systems.

There are several questions involved with the subject of man-made global warming (after this, I will simply call it global warming). Is the average temperature of the Earth increasing? What definition of global warming is being used? What is the method being used to measure it? These important questions have never been answered. One would think that temperature data would be paramount in the discussion, but it has come to light that gross data manipulation, data editing, and selective data omission have taken place. I refer to the infamous “Climate Gate.” What data we have indicates that the Earth’s temperature has held steady or decreased a fraction of a degree Celsius over about the last ten years or more. Since the temperature data do not support global warming, the proponents have taken to calling their alleged effect “climate change” and we see exploitation of those poor polar bears (whose estimated population has increased five-fold since the ‘70s) and are shown videos of calving glaciers (that’s how ice bergs form) and are told, disingenuously, that it is because of global warming.

The choice of carbon dioxide (CO2) as the culprit in global warming was especially inept. It is a trace gas in Earth’s atmosphere. Even if the burning of fossil fuels doubled or trebled the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, it would still be a trace gas and not capable of the large effects ascribed to it. The laws of chemistry say that the effect of a particular compound must be a function of its concentration.

The so-called greenhouse effect has been falsified and concluded to be fictional. Greenhouses are made of glass with well-known physics. No greenhouse effect has been demonstrated in any planetary atmosphere. In fact, such an alleged effect has been thoroughly falsified and shown to be in violation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. In science, falsifying does not mean disproving but, rather, showing that the subject effect is in violation of one or more of the fundamental laws of science.

The Earth, in the past, has been both colder and warmer than it is now. Even in historic times the Earth has seen extremes in climate. There was a warm period known as the Medieval Optimum where records show that Roman soldiers in England grew grapes and made wine. Greenland was named such by Viking explorers because it was green and the original name the Vikings gave to Nova Scotia was “Vineland” because they found grapes growing wild there. Not too long after the Medieval Optimum, the Earth went through a period known as the “Little Ice Age” in which there were several hundred years of colder than normal winters. In London, the Thames froze completely over. Both of these periods were ignored in generating the fictional “hockey stick” graph used to support the idea of global warming in a now infamous so-called documentary film.

In science, the burden of proof is on those who make an assertion. Those that say the Earth is undergoing man-made global warming have the obligation to provide the scientific proof. They have not done so. Instead, they have reacted in not only unscientific ways but in antiscientific ones as well. There is no place in science for personal attacks and character assassinations.

Al Miller is a chemist retired after a 40-plus-year career in research. He lives in Indio with his wife and their dog. Email him at alm7651@verizon.net


http://www.mydesert.com/article/20130420/OPINION04/304200041/Climate-change-conclusion-goes-against-scientific-method?gcheck=1&nclick_check=1
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2013, 11:03:13 am »

^^ Honestly, the public's attitude toward this seems to be apathy - even despite Climategate where tons of emails got leaked over how scientists lied about their "research", it still really didn't sway public perception one way or another.

2Peter 3:3  Knowing this first, that there shall come in the last days scoffers, walking after their own lusts,
2Pe 3:4  And saying, Where is the promise of his coming? for since the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they were from the beginning of the creation.
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« Reply #19 on: July 24, 2013, 06:33:51 am »

Why has global warming stalled?

With Britain's heatwave reaching a peak, there could be no better moment to talk about why global warming has slowed to a standstill.

It reminds me of reporting on a drought a few years ago: while filming interviews with people about the impact, the heavens opened and rainwater was soon flowing down my neck.

So as journalists were invited to the Science Media Centre in London to hear how the worldwide rise in temperatures has stalled, the mercury shot up as if on cue to record the hottest day of the year so far.

In many ways, this event was long overdue: climate sceptics have for years pointed out that the world is not warming as rapidly as once forecast.

A lot depends on how you do the measurements, of course.


Start Quote
There are plenty of possible explanations but none of them adds up to a definitive smoking gun.”
End Quote
Each of the last few decades has been warmer than the last. But start your graph in 1998 - which happened to be an exceptionally warm year - and there hasn't been much global warming at all.

Gradually the words 'pause' and 'hiatus' which first featured in the blogs have crossed to the media and then to the scientists professionally engaged in researching the global climate.

The headline - which the scientists will not thank me for - is that no one is really sure why the rate of warming has stumbled.

No smoking gun
 
There are plenty of possible explanations but none of them adds up to a definitive smoking gun.

 Industrialisation may lead to a drop in global temperatures in the 1940s
Professor Piers Forster of Leeds University has tried to quantify the different factors involved - what's known as their "radiative forcing".

Between 1998-2012, he reckons, manmade greenhouse gases were still the biggest influence, causing warming of 0.48 of a Watt per square metre (a key measure of energy flows to and from the planet).

At the same, he estimates, two other natural influences might have led to some cooling: a relatively quiet Sun might have been responsible for a reduction of 0.16 of a Watt/sq m and volcanic eruptions another 0.06 Watt/sq m.

A big unknown is the effect of aerosols - tiny particles released by industrial pollution which could cause a further cooling effect.

It is thought that the world's massive industrialisation after World War Two contributed to a slight drop in global temperatures in the late 1940s.

But the key factor - according to all the speakers at the briefing - is that whatever solar energy is making it through to the surface, much is being absorbed by the hidden depths of the oceans.

The Argo network of automated monitors has been deployed since 2005 to measure the waters as deep as 1,800m. This isn't a very long period but the data are apparently showing some warming - even in this short time frame.

And readings from satellites since 2000 show how much energy is arriving at the planet, and how much is leaving, so if the energy left behind is not manifesting itself in rising surface temperatures, then it must be going somewhere - and the deep ocean is the most plausible explanation.

Pauses expected
 
On top of that, the scientists say, pauses in warming were always to be expected. This is new - at least to me.

It is common sense that climate change would not happen in a neat, linear away but instead in fits and starts.

But I've never heard leading researchers mention the possibility before.

 Arctic sea ice levels have fallen
Professor Rowan Sutton, of Reading University, said computer simulations or models of possible future climate scenarios often show periods of ten years with no warming trend - some even show pauses of 20-25 years.

And Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said observations and models showed that on average there were - or would be - two pauses in warming every century.

I asked why this had not come up in earlier presentations. No one really had an answer, except to say that this "message" about pauses had not been communicated widely.

So where does this leave us, as greenhouse gases emissions keep rising but the temperature does not?

Dr Peter Stott, of the Met Office, pointed out that 12 of the 14 warmest years have occurred since the year 2000 and says that other indicators - like the decline in Arctic sea ice of 12.9% per decade and losses of snow cover and glaciers - still point to a process of manmade warming.

Bad maths
 
But what about another possibility - that the calculations are wrong?

What if the climate models - which are the very basis for all discussions of what to do about global warming - exaggerate the sensitivity of the climate to rising carbon dioxide?

Dr Stott conceded that the projections showing the most rapid warming now look less likely, given recent observations, but that others remain largely unchanged.

A Met Office briefing document, released at the briefing, says that, even allowing for the temperatures of the last decade, the most likely warming scenario is only reduced by 10% - so "the warming that we might have expected by 2050 would be delayed by only a few years".

Overall, it concludes, the pause "does not materially alter the risks of substantial warming of the Earth by the end of this century."

In other words, global warming is still on.

But until the pause can be properly explained, many people will take a lot of convincing - especially if the pause lasts longer than expected.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23409404
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2013, 02:09:16 pm »

Russian scientists: Earth can expect a new ice age

There is no escaping another ice age on Earth; this is the conclusion that has been reached by researchers at the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, institute director Vladimir Bogdanov told ITAR-TASS. However, the “global cooling” will not occur for another few thousand years.
 
“To predict the distant future, we are researching ecological issues and trying to understand what life was like hundreds of thousands of years ago,” said Bogdanov.

“Everything on Earth is cyclical — a warm period is followed by a cold one, and vice versa. We are currently in a warm period. However, unlike past periods, it is advancing too quickly. Over the last 100 years, we have seen a drastic migration of animals and plants to the North.” Thus every year, trees are rising by about 1.5 feet toward the peaks of the northern mountains, and they are encroaching on the tundra.
 
“Our observations suggest that Earth’s climate warming will occur for at least another 50 years. This is most noticeable in high latitudes — in the Artic and the mountains,” said Valery Mazepa, a biologist and head of the institute’s dendrochronology laboratory.
 
According to scientists, a global cooling on the planet is inevitable, and humans will not be able to affect this cycle. “People’s actions may only influence how cool it will be during the next ice age on Earth. It will depend on how much greenhouse gases threaten the atmosphere,” said Pavel Kosnitsev, head of the institute’s paleoecology laboratory.


http://rbth.ru/news/2013/08/06/russian_scientists_earth_can_expect_a_new_ice_age_28715.html
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« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2013, 04:24:52 pm »

Quote
“To predict the distant future..."

Scientists.  Roll Eyes

"Boast not thyself of to morrow; for thou knowest not what a day may bring forth." Proverbs 27:1 (KJB)
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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2013, 11:43:49 am »

Interior Secretary: I don't want any climate-change deniers in my department

Buried in a lengthy Washington Post article about President Obama’s environmental policy is an illuminating anecdote about just how debatable the administration views climate change — namely, not at all:
 
In an agency-wide address to employees Aug. 1, (Interior Secretary Sally) Jewell took the unusual step of suggesting that no one working for her should challenge the idea that human activity is driving recent warming. “I hope there are no climate-change deniers in the Department of Interior,” she said.
 
The address does not appear to be posted on the department’s website, so the Washington Examiner can only go by the Post’s presumably third-hand version. Still, it raises some interesting questions: What would happen to somebody at the department who raised some skepticism regarding Jewell’s take on climate change? Would they be in danger of losing their job?
 
For example, what if that person posted a news article pointing out that the global temperatures have been flat for the last two decades?
 
Presumably somebody at the Interior Department knows the answers to these questions. Whether they’re willing to talk openly about them is another question.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/interior-secretary-i-dont-want-any-climate-change-deniers-in-my-department/article/2534142
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2013, 05:31:40 am »

What Global Warming? 2012 Data Confirms Earth In Cooling Trend

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released its “State of the Climate in 2012” report, which states that “worldwide, 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record.”

But the report “fails to mention [2012] was one of the coolest of the decade, and thus confirms the cooling trend,” according to an analysis by climate blogger Pierre Gosselin.

“To no one’s surprise, the report gives the reader the impression that warming is galloping ahead out of control,” writes Gosselin. “But their data shows just the opposite.”

Although the NOAA report noted that in 2012, “the Arctic continues to warm” with “sea ice reaching record lows,” it also stated that the Antarctica sea ice “reached a record high of 7.51 million square miles” on Sept. 26, 2012.

And the latest figures for this year show that there’s been a slowdown of melting in the Arctic this summer as well, with temperatures at the North Pole well below normal for this time of year. Meteorologist Joe Bastardi calls it “the coldest ever recorded.”

The Associated Press had to retract a photo it released on July 27 with the caption, “The shallow meltwater lake is occurring due to an unusually warm period.”

“In fact, the water accumulates in this way every summer,” AP admitted in a note to editors, adding that the photo was doubly misleading because “the camera used by the North Pole Environment Observatory has drifted hundreds of miles from its original position, which was a few dozen miles from the pole.”

NOAA also reported that the “average lower strastospheric temperature, about six to ten miles above the Earth’s surface, for 2012 was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset” even while the concentrations of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, continued to increase.

"Even with all this data manipulation, the trend is down as shown by this Hadley global plot," writes Joseph D'Aleo, former director of meteorology at The Weather Channel. (See D'Aleo - Real Story About Temps.pdf)

"Last year was the 8th warmest but 7th coldest since 1998. They explain it away with the predominance of La Ninas or a solar blip, but say it was the warmest decade nonetheless, so stop questioning us," he said.

On August 7th, the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten quoted Irish solar expert Ian Elliott predicting that lower levels of sunspot activity over the next few years “indicates that we may be on the path to a new little ice age.”

“If you think scientists just couldn’t get any more incompetent, then think again. NOAA scientists even appear to believe that cold events are now signs of warming,” Gosselin points out.

“When one carefully reads the report, we find that the NOAA findings actually do confirm precisely what the skeptics have been claiming all along:

1. The Earth has stopped warming.

2. The climate models exaggerated future warming [caused by] CO2 climate sensitivity is much lower than we first thought.

“That’s the real issue at hand,” he added.

- See more at: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/what-global-warming-2012-data-confirms-earth-cooling-trend#sthash.1ROV38Os.dpuf
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2013, 11:07:53 am »

No matter how much this gets debunked, no matter how much their lies get exposed, somehow this debate ends up getting chugged on.

Ultimately, their Hegelian Dialectic game is going on as planned.

1Cor_3:18  Let no man deceive himself. If any man among you seemeth to be wise in this world, let him become a fool, that he may be wise.
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« Reply #25 on: August 24, 2013, 08:22:48 am »

We need a global geoengineering watchdog, researchers say

A new international organisation will be needed to help nations manage geoengineering efforts, new research predicts, because trying to deliberately alter the planet's climate raises a raft of tricky issues.

Climate engineering (or geoengineering) technologies aim to manipulate the earth's climate, generally either by taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere or reflecting sunlight away from the earth.

Most of the technologies work in theory and some have been tested on a small scale. But at the moment, issues of cost, unforeseen consequences and politics mean geoengineering remains a largely untried area.

Nonetheless, the new study's authors from the Berlin Social Science Research Centre are convinced such climate engineering will play an important role in future efforts to address climate change. With that in mind, they're thinking about not just which technologies could work, but what systems of governance will be needed to make geoengineering happen.

Climate engineering paradox

The researchers concentrate on two technologies which they say could have a big impact on global temperatures, and which could be cheap enough for a single or small group of countries to implement: 'stratospheric particle injection' and 'marine cloud brightening'.

Stratospheric particle injection requires spraying tiny airborne particles into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight away from the earth, and reduce warming. The system works by attaching a pipe to a balloon that is tethered to a boat, as the picture below shows. Not totally sci-fi, then, (although it would be the largest man-made structure in the world).



The second option is also relatively low-tech. Cloud brightening involves spraying sea water into clouds to scatter micro-droplets which reflect more sunlight, and reduce warming. The main piece of kit is a ship that can spray water high into the sky.

Both of these methods are relatively cheap - certainly within the range of governments to carry out. That makes them worth thinking about, the authors say. They also argue - perhaps because they would be relatively easy to implement - that these are the technologies most likely to meet political opposition.

Both techniques raise some tricky legal and political questions. The technologies need to be sited in international waters, which no one country has control over. That makes it harder for any nation take the leap to fund the research and construction and deploy the technologies, the researchers say. And the potential side-effects of the technologies are also still uncertain, meaning environmental campaigners and governments not involved in building the technologies may object to their use.

So even if the technologies work in a technical sense, there could be political obstacles to rolling them out on a large-scale.

International climate engineering agency

The researchers suggest the answer to these issues is to create a new international climate engineering agency. The agency's job would be to coordinate countries' efforts and manage research funding.

The researchers suggest the agency could put climate engineering regulations in place through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which currently oversees the Kyoto protocol and other international climate treaties. It also suggests the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - which is currently tasked with amalgamating climate science research - could help bring the best climate engineering research together, and the papers authors point out to us that the IPCC is expected to include a chapter on climate engineering in its upcoming Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Some climate policy wonks may shudder at the thought of giving responsibility for geoengineering to either of these bodies. But creating a new institutional structure isn't easy. The UNFCCC has been criticised for being ineffective, and the IPCC has a narrow remit to synthesise climate science research.

But one of the paper's authors, Stefan Schäfer, argues that in the absence of any concrete guidance on climate engineering practices, this institutional setup is the most likely to work. He says:

"The triangular set up between UNFCCC, IPCC and climate engineering agency is intended to address the expected resistance to climate engineering by providing a governance structure that can deal with the many worrisome issues associated with this topic. Setting up such an agency from scratch would be difficult, but this would not necessarily have to be the case; it could also evolve from existing structures".

Thinking ahead

Setting up rules and regulations to guide government actions is always a tricky business. So when a new issue comes along, it's worth looking ahead.

This study considers future political obstacles now in the hope it will prevent climate engineering solutions being shot down before they've even got off the ground. Creating a new international agency could be one way to keep the plans alive.

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/08/we-need-a-global-geoengineering-watchdog,-researchers-say
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« Reply #26 on: September 02, 2013, 06:54:07 am »

MIT professor: global warming is a ‘religion’

Throughout history, governments have twisted science to suit a political agenda. Global warming is no different, according to Dr. Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“Global climate alarmism has been costly to society, and it has the potential to be vastly more costly. It has also been damaging to science, as scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions,” writes Lindzen in the fall 2013 issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons.

According to Lindzen, scientists make essentially “meaningless” claims about certain phenomenon. Activists for certain causes take up claims made by scientists and politicians respond to the alarmism spread by activists by doling out more research funding. — creating an “Iron Triangle” of poor incentives.

rest: http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/29/mit-professor-global-warming-is-a-religion/
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« Reply #27 on: September 02, 2013, 09:46:24 am »

MIT professor: global warming is a ‘religion’

Throughout history, governments have twisted science to suit a political agenda. Global warming is no different, according to Dr. Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“Global climate alarmism has been costly to society, and it has the potential to be vastly more costly. It has also been damaging to science, as scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions,” writes Lindzen in the fall 2013 issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons.

According to Lindzen, scientists make essentially “meaningless” claims about certain phenomenon. Activists for certain causes take up claims made by scientists and politicians respond to the alarmism spread by activists by doling out more research funding. — creating an “Iron Triangle” of poor incentives.

rest: http://dailycaller.com/2013/08/29/mit-professor-global-warming-is-a-religion/

It sure is - b/c if you believe in "global warming", then you're seeking treasures on this earth, and NOT in heaven.

Mat_6:19  Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth, where moth and rust doth corrupt, and where thieves break through and steal:
Mat_6:20  But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal:


Mat_6:33  But seek ye first the kingdom of God, and his righteousness; and all these things shall be added unto you.
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« Reply #28 on: September 08, 2013, 06:35:53 pm »

Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in year...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html


Top scientists warning of global COOLING...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html
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« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2013, 11:41:51 am »

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/humberto-may-defend-hurricane-record/17586208
Humberto Becomes First Atlantic Hurricane of 2013
9/11/13

Very early Wednesday morning, Humberto strengthened to become the first hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Maximum sustained winds reached 75 mph, classifying Humberto as a Category 1 hurricane during the overnight hours. As of the midday hours Wednesday, Humberto had strengthened slightly with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.

There was a chance this hurricane season might set a new record for having the latest first Atlantic hurricane since the satellite era began in the early 1960s. The challenge went down to the wire with a difference of approximately three hours.

The latest the first hurricane of the season formed was 2002's Gustav on Sept. 11. Gustav was upgraded from a tropical storm to a minimal hurricane that Wednesday midday, shortly after 8:00 a.m. EDT.

As of Tuesday evening, Sept. 10, there had been no hurricanes thus far during the 2013 season in the Atlantic. However, Humberto brought an end to this by strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane near the Cape Verde Islands early Wednesday morning.

Since Humberto was upgraded to a hurricane prior to the time Gustav became a hurricane on the 11th, the late-forming hurricane record has remained intact.

According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Humberto has entered an area of the atmosphere with low disruptive winds at midweek."

These diminishing winds helped Humberto strengthen to become a Category 1 hurricane.

"Late this week, Humberto is likely to weaken while moving into a zone with drier air and more disruptive winds," Kottlowski said.

A curve to the northwest and then the north is forecast this week, which will take Humberto over the open waters of the central Atlantic with no serious direct impact to mainland areas.

Locally gusty winds, rough seas and a few squalls will continue to affect the Cape Verde Islands into Thursday, prior to the system moving to the weset and north.

According to Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, "the greatest impact from Humberto will be on the Cape Verde Islands this week." Locally gusty thunderstorms, downpours and rough surf and seas will affect the islands.

Prior to the satellite era, the 1941 season did not deliver an Atlantic hurricane until Sept. 16.

Farther back, there were two years that had no reports of hurricanes in the Atlantic. These were in 1907 and 1914. While it is possible there were no hurricanes during both seasons, there were only five reported tropical storms in 1907 and only one in 1914. Especially, during the latter season, a number of storms may have gone undetected without the aid of weather satellite photos.

Beyond Humberto, there are no strong candidates for hurricanes through the middle of September. However, there may be another tropical depression or storm over the next week to 10 days. Possible tropical depression/storm breeding areas include the western Caribbean, the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the continued train of disturbances moving westward off of Africa.

The season thus far has treated most populated areas of North America kindly. Sadly, it has claimed lives in Mexico, due to flooding from Tropical Storm Fernand in August.

Late-season storms in some years have been very destructive.

According to Meteorologist Mark Mancuso, "While 2005's Wilma occurred during the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, it did not come about until the middle of October."

Quote
Wilma became the most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin, in terms of low atmospheric pressure. Maximum sustained winds reached 185 mph. Wilma killed dozens of people and caused nearly $30 billion in damage from the Caribbean to the eastern United States, Canada and later Europe.

While the season thus far has been tame compared to some years, many meteorologists concur that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet and will not sound the "all-clear" until the weather pattern suggests that.

There will be more systems to monitor over the next two months. Alerts to such systems will be sounded, when appropriate.

There is a chance there are three active tropical systems spinning over the Atlantic basin simultaneously later this week. These include Humberto, Gabrielle and perhaps a system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

People should consider hurricanes as being just as much of an autumn weather phenomena as well as a summer phenomena. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.



According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, since 1851, there have been 645 hurricanes during the months of September, October and November, compared to 321 hurricanes during June, July and August.

"Even if the large high pressure area and its dry air over the central Atlantic was to hold through the remainder of the season, occasional weaknesses in that system can still allow hurricane formation over the next two months," Kottlowski said.
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