Martial law Thailand: the inevitable intervention from the army
Analysis: the refusal of Thailand's opposing Red and Yellow political forces to work together left military leaders little choice As a neutral, it is hard to pick sides in Thailand’s long running – and sporadically deadly - political stand-off.
Which side is more worthy of our support? The Reds or the Yellows?
The Reds – the mostly poor, rural supporters of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his ilk - have won every election since 2000 fair and square. But it is hard to avoid the suspicion voiced by his critics that Thaksin saw democracy as a means to further the business interests of himself, his family and his cadre of trusted aides. His combination of populism and cronyism carried an inherent threat to the royal family, which largely explains why he was removed by the military in 2006.
Some of the Red shirts have not been afraid to resort to violence, most recently last week when three anti-government supporters were killed in an attack on their protest camp.
On the other hand, the Reds lost lives heavily in 2010 when the army attacked their encampment against a Yellow-supported Democratic Party government that had been installed courtesy of the army.
In their defence, the Yellows – largely middle class and metropolitan - can be seen as patriots defending the royal family and preventing the establishment of a demagoguery that could have harmed the country in the long term. On the other hand they have blatantly ignored the results of several elections, all won by Thaksin’s party, or parties loyal to him, since his first pivotal victory in 2000.
By occupying central Bangkok for extended periods over the last several years, Yellow shirt protesters have prevented the government from functioning properly. The solution of their leader Suthep Thaugsuban to the impasse has been an unelected "people's council" - hardly the solution of a democrat.
It may seem depressingly familiar, but given this bloody deadlock, it is not surprising the army has stepped in and declared martial law. The military has after all mounted 18 coups or attempted coups since 1932, and before the 1980s usually formed the government.
As Tuesday’s pictures of Thais grinning with the military show, its move is not without the support of a public relieved that seven months of disorder has abruptly ended.
The danger of course is that this latest declaration of martial law could soon become another fully-fledged coup. The situation is fluid and unpredictable but that currently seems unlikely, not least because US sanctions would be invoked by a military seizure of power.
For now, the West should hope that the military can achieve its aim of finding a way for the Reds and Yellows to work together until new elections can be held.
Then, the results must be accepted but winners (likely to be the Reds) must realise they rule a divided and wounded country. Both sides need to show a maturity and willingness to compromise that has been conspicuously lacking so far.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/thailand/10843279/Martial-law-Thailand-the-inevitable-intervention-from-the-army.html
